The Observer, February 18, 2005
Volume XXXVII, Issue 18
Cavaliers are good this year, but not good enough
I had a tremendous feeling of déjà vu last Friday when the Cleveland Cavaliers lost at home to the Denver Nuggets, 106-101. Just as in previous home losses against the mediocre Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards, the Cavs started the game by amassing a double-digit lead, only to slowly give it away and then lose. The loss to the sub-.500 Denver Nuggets dropped the Cavs to 28-20, which is a respectable record but left them in second place in the Central division to the 29-19 Detroit Pistons.
What is interesting about the Cavs' situation is how fans are overrating the ability of this year's team, which has no chance of winning the NBA championship and may not even make it out of the first round of the playoffs. Yet, many people are becoming die-hard Cavs fans and expecting them to go far in the playoffs.
At the midpoint of the season, the Cavs have not shown that they are capable of beating the best teams in the league. Although they have a very good home record, their record at the Gund should be even better. In four of the five home losses (against Indiana, Boston, Wash-ington, and Denver) the Cavs had a lead going into the fourth quarter; against Boston and Washington, the lead was more than 10 points. Cleveland could play Indiana, Boston, or Washington at some point in the playoffs, and they cannot afford to lose home games if they want to be victorious in a seven-game series. Moreover, the Cavs' record against teams with a winning record is about .500. This means they can beat mediocre teams, but the Cavs won't be facing those teams come playoff time.
Ultimately, Cleveland's inexperience, lack of defense, poor bench play, and lack of outside shooting hurts them. Drew Gooden is talented but often makes silly mistakes and at times forgets to play defense. The same can be said of LeBron James. Even though he is a great player and is already arguably the best in the league, he won't reach his full potential until he intensifies his defense and takes smarter shots. Zydrunas Ilgauskas makes plays but is simply too slow on defense and cannot stop Shaq. Then again, nobody really can. Ira Newble starts but is limited offensively and is much more suited for coming off the bench. Additionally, the bench is outscored by the opponents' bench nearly every game, thanks to erratic play from high-priced veterans busts like Eric Snow and Lucious Harris. Robert Traylor has been the only pleasant surprise among the bench players. Lastly, the Cavs have to get more shooters. McInnis and Pavlovic are the only legitimate three-point threats for Cleveland, and they aren't exactly Mark Price.
For all of these reasons, the Cavs should not be considered a title contender this year. My prediction is that Cleveland will have the third-best record in the East behind Miami and Detroit. Therefore, the Cavs will make the playoffs and will likely play the fifth or sixth seed in the first round with home field advantage. Either Orlando, who the Cavs lost to on Feb. 1, or Phil-adelphia, who is always dangerous because of Allen Iverson (who scored 60 points in a game this past Saturday), prob-ably will be the Cavs' opponent. Cleveland will be lucky to beat either of these teams and will most certainly lose to Detroit or Miami in the second round of the playoffs. And let's get crazy, say the impossible happens, and Cleveland makes its first trip to the NBA finals by beating both Miami and Detroit. Surely, the West teams of Seattle, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Dallas–all of which have better records than the Cavs and are far more experienced–would destroy Cleveland in the championship.
So, why then are Clevelanders so rabid about their Cavs? The major reason, of course, is LeBron James. He is great and will be even greater in years to come. His electrifying play and immense talent give fans the erroneous impression that he already is the Michael Jordan of the Cavaliers, and will win playoff series after playoff series by himself. But even Jordan, talented as he was, had lots of help from Scottie Pippen, Toni Kukoc, B.J. Armstrong, and coach Phil Jackson. However, LeBron James does have help. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, slow as he may be, is one of the top five centers in the NBA. Drew Gooden every so often is very impressive, Jeff McInnis has experience and more than adequately fills his role as the Cavs' point guard, and Robert Traylor has exceeded expectations off of the bench. These players make this year's Cavaliers the most talented squad since the early 1990s.
Yet another reason for all of the hoopla is Cleveland fans are used to losers, so they are getting excited, too excited, about the Cavs' winning ways. The Browns went a woeful 4-12 this year and the Indians had another losing season at 80-82. Cleveland has not seen a major championship since the Indians won the World Series in 1948, constituting one of the worst championship droughts for a city of all time.
Therefore, Cleveland fans are like a guy or girl desperate for a date who finally gets someone who isn't that great to go out with them. They take what they can get, and then get too excited about something that really is not that special. An individual with a dry spell in their love life is happy just to go on a date at all, and the Cleveland fans are going wild because they finally have a winning team for once. However, reality will set in for Cavs fans… around late April or early May.
