The Observer, January 27, 2006
Volume XXXVIII, Issue 14
NFL Guru: Steelers will add one more victory to their dream season
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Super Bowl XL: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers must have been fated to reach the Super Bowl. Nothing else can explain how they were able to win against the odds, over and over again, when everybody and their mother was out to stop them. First came the injury to RB Jerome Bettis just before week one, and just when Pittsburgh's running game looked its worst, Willie Parker came from out of nowhere to shoulder the load. When QB Ben Roethlisberger missed three games in the middle of the season with a knee injury, the team rallied together to win two of the three. Playing the number one seeded Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round, despite poor officiating and an uncharacteristic Bettis fumble late in the game, a very rare field goal miss by Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt gave Pittsburgh the win. No matter what happened this season, luck always went hand in hand with the Steelers. But in the rare times when luck wasn't in their favor, Pittsburgh created its own by forcing 43 turnovers. A solid ball-control offense complemented the defense, grinding out over 2200 rushing yards. In the playoffs they controlled all three games they played, stymieing opposing offenses with a swarming defense and passing the ball effectively on offense.
After week four, the Seahawks were 2-2 and looking at the start of another underachieving season. Then they won 11 games in a row and went into the playoffs as the NFC's top seed. Behind RB Shaun Alexander, the NFL's MVP, the Seahawks ran for 2457 yards, with Alexander himself contributing 1880 yards and an NFL-record 28 touchdowns. The running game opened up throwing options for QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had arguably his best season since he entered the league. Hasselbeck threw for 3459 yards and 24 touchdowns, compiling a career-best QB rating of 98.2. The offense put up 30 points or more in seven of the team's 16 games, and only had less than 14 points once. During their winning streak the 'Hawks established themselves as one of the league's premier teams, beating powerhouses like the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and the Atlanta Falcons. They also demolished the Philadelphia Eagles to the tune of 42-0 in Week 12. Finally, the Seahawks played up to their expectations, but the Seahawks will face their toughest test of the postseason in the Super Bowl.
If the Steelers want to win this game, they will need to focus on stopping Alexander. Pittsburgh will need to be able to contain the explosive RB with just their base defense, because if they are forced to commit more men to stop the run, Hasselbeck will have a field day throwing against the resultant one-on-one coverage. The Seahawks may have trouble dealing with blitzes from a 3-4 set, and if the Steelers can get some pressure on Hasselbeck, he could make some mistakes. On offense, they need to set the pace of the game. Expect conservative play calling early, with lots of runs and short passes. But if the Seahawks' secondary bites and starts moving up to deal with this, the Steelers won't hesitate to throw a few balls deep.
Pittsburgh is a very complete team, with no glaring weaknesses. In order to win, the Seahawks will have to shut down the entire Steelers' offense, not just focus on a star player. Pittsburgh's running game is weaker than it was in previous years, and as a result the team is relying more on Roethlisberger to chew up yards and time via the air. But just because the rushing attack is worse, doesn't mean it isn't very good. The Steelers are still very willing to pound the ball on the ground with Bettis, then switch to the speedster Parker to outrun the defense. On offense, the Seahawks will have to deal with one of the best defenses in the league. If they can't pull ahead early, Seattle will be forced to play field position football, which they aren't accustomed to doing. The 'Hawks will need a big play or two early to gain momentum against the Steeler defense.
Seattle has some big names that can put up a lot of points in a hurry, whereas Pittsburgh relies on chipping down an opponent before putting the game away with their efficient offense. If Alexander can run as easily against the Steeler's 3-4 alignment as he does against every other team, the game could be over by halftime. If Pittsburgh can control the clock and keep the ball away from the Seahawks offense, Hasselbeck and co. will have a hell of a time trying to move the ball against a rested Steeler's D the few times they have the ball.
To pick a winner, I went back to the old axiom "offense wins games, but defense wins championships." When it comes right down to it, I see Pittsburgh locking Alexander down and grinding out a victory. But make no mistake about it, this will be a good game. The teams are evenly matched and will provide a good challenge for each other. I don't see this game turning into a blowout, like so many previous Superbowls have. Anything can happen, and momentum will be a big factor. Prediction: Pittsburgh, 27-21.
