The Observer, October 14, 2005
Volume XXXVIII, Issue 7
NFL Guru: Winning streak will prove elusive for Browns
Matchup of the Week: St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts
The Rams lost to the Seattle Seahawks in a shootout last week, falling to 2-3 and out of first place in the NFC West. Nothing particular went wrong with St. Louis: they just got beat. The offense gained over 400 total yards, with QB Marc Bulger throwing for over 300 yards and WR Torry Holt accumulating 126 receiving yards and a TD catch. Critical turnovers proved to be the deciding factor, including a fumbled punt return with less than four minutes left in the game that would have given the Rams the ball with plenty of time to win the game.
The Colts became the only remaining undefeated team in the league when they beat the hapless San Francisco 49ers and the other three undefeated teams lost. The rejuvenated defense has suddenly given the Colts options in approaching each game; no longer is Indianapolis forced to put 35+ points on the board each week in order to win. Instead they now can play ball control and rely on their defense to win games. Colts QB Peyton Manning unchar-acteristically threw two interceptions, but the defense bailed him out by creating five turnovers of their own. The Colts didn't play particularly well, but they didn't have to. This week will be a greater challenge.
Both teams are known for their high-octane offenses, but the defenses will be key in deciding this game. Both Manning and Bulger can put up the rock for 400 yards a game, but St. Louis doesn't have the defense to stop Indy's assault. The only chance the Rams have is to control the clock. They need to spread the Colts defense as wide and deep as they can, then throw underneath all day. When the Colts offense is on the field, I don't think they will be stopped, so the Rams are going to have to match Indy score for score to stay in the game. But with the Colts D, it's not going to happen. Prediction: Indianapolis, 33-20.
Cleveland Browns Matchup: Browns at Baltimore Ravens
With six minutes left in the game, the Browns looked headed for another disappointing home loss last week against the lowly Chicago Bears. Then QB Trent Dilfer hit wideout Antonio Bryant on two long TD passes within a single minute, and suddenly Cleveland was coasting to a 20-10 victory. And these weren't ordinary throws, either. Dilfer threw two absolutely beautiful passes to the man he's called "by far the most explosive receiver I've ever played with." The passing game wasn't the only bright spot on the Browns' offense – RB Rueben Droughns had 72 yards on the ground and also caught four passes for 21 yards. The Cleveland defense stepped up in a big way, sacking Bears QB Kyle Orton four times and recovering three fumbles. The fumble recoveries were huge, helping to offset a 137-yard pummeling on the ground courtesy of Chicago RB Thomas Jones.
The Ravens were blasted by the Detroit Lions in Week 5. Detroit roared to a 14-0 lead and never looked back en route to a 35-17 blowout victory. On paper, however, the loss doesn't look so bad. The Ravens' defense held Detroit to under 100 passing yards, but the offense committed four turnovers. The Lions were able to run for 169 yards and four touchdowns, unchar-acteristic numbers for a Baltimore defense that is usually very tough on the ground. The offense was surprisingly productive, however, as QB Anthony Wright threw for 230 yards and two TDs and RB Jamal Lewis finally broke out of his funk and ran for 95 yards.
The Ravens could be showing the beginning of a problem handling running backs, and I'm sure the Browns will try to establish a running game early with Droughns. The Browns are, well, the Browns, and so Jamal Lewis will be fed the ball often to see if he can't break some long runs. Neither team has a spectacular passing offense, but the Browns will have a harder time of it, throwing the ball against the solid Baltimore secondary. For Cleveland to have a chance they will need to establish the run game, which would mean getting more than 100 rushing yards out of Droughns. But Baltimore will clamp down and stack the box, so I don't see it happening. The Ravens will take an offensively lackluster contest. Prediction: Baltimore, 17-6.
