The Observer, September 29, 2006
Volume XXXIX, Issue 5
NFL Guru: New England Patriots' empire beginning to crumble
The New England Patriots sit at 2-1, tied for first in the AFC East. But don't let the standings fool you; these are not the Patriots of recent memory, the team that went 58-22 and won three Super Bowls in the past five years.
The Patriots won their first two games by a total of nine points, which on the surface does not seem too out of place for a team that traditionally relies on winning close games as it proceeds into January.
Against the Bills in week one, the Patriots didn't hold the lead until there was 8:33 left in the final quarter. They ultimately had to rely on a safety to win the game.
The next week, New England soared to a 24-0 lead, locking down the New York Jets for nearly 40 minutes. But then the Jets scored on three consecutive drives, the first two marked by uncharacteristically poor tackling on long touchdown catches by Jets' receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery.
Playing the Denver Broncos at home last week, the Patriots went down meekly, 17-7. To put that in a little more perspective, New England has lost at home just eight times since 2001, a span of 45 home games (including playoffs).
QB Tom Brady has struggled mightily, completing only 53.3 percent of his passes, almost seven points worse than his career low. Brady's struggles are certainly related to the loss of WRs David Givens and Deion Branch, who combined for 137 catches and 1736 receiving yards last season.
The defense has not been spared losses either. Star linebacker Willie McGinest was lured away by the Cleveland Browns, and the Jets hired defensive coordinator Eric Mangini to be their head coach. The unit has been putting up an admirable fight despite these losses, but it is no longer the feared squad that gave great offenses fits (Indianapolis Colts, anyone?).
The Patriots have worked hard to maintain their status as an elite team while being picked clean by other teams looking to emulate their elusive formula for success. But time is finally beginning to take its toll on New England; look for this year and the next to be ones for rebuilding the franchise.
Not all the buzz in the NFL is doom-and-gloom, however. Several unlikely teams have already begun to distinguish themselves as playoff contenders.
The Chicago Bears, a team that has been distinctly mediocre for the past decade, are making a strong push for the playoffs, beating each other team in the division to lead the NFC North at 3-0. The Bears are winning with a defense that has allowed just 23 points this season. On the flip side of the ball, fourth-year pro QB Rex Grossman has completed 61 passes for 829 yards and six touchdowns, all easily career highs.
Switching conferences once again, the Cincinnati Bengals shocked many last week by beating the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers 28-20. Quarterback Carson Palmer, coming back from a devastating knee injury, threw four touchdown passes. Palmer showed that he could play at the same level as he did last season, but has been plagued by inconsistency this year with four interceptions to his name. The offensive line has also been subpar, as Palmer has been sacked 11 times in three games. Despite these minor concerns, the Bengals are certainly a team ready to advance deep into the playoffs.
