The Observer, October 13, 2006
Volume XXXIX, Issue 7
Free Speech Zone: North Korea keeps nation on high alert
At approximately 10:36 a.m. this Monday, the worst fears of many were realized as North Korea conducted an underground test of a nuclear weapon. This not-so-metaphorical shot heard round the world has already thrown much of the international relations community into a state of acute anxiety. Several abrasive (a self-distinction) "shock-jock" radio hosts and their hackneyed partisan counterparts on television, whom I hope to God do not represent the opinions of most Americans, have advocated some sort of immediate military response.
Regardless, the North Korean test requires some sort of response from the international community and the United States in particular. The proposed reaction is that the U.N. Security Council should impose even harsher sanctions than the existing ones on North Korea, driving its government further into isolation and its population further into desperate starvation.
This outcome is as counterproductive as it is unlikely. China will likely only agree to much weaker, symbolic sanctions, which would do little to improve the ever-deteriorating situation. This would likely reinforce the current model (six-party talks), which situates the United States and Japan against North Korea at mutually aggressive extremes, leaving South Korea, China, and Russia to negotiate while attempting to further their own interests at the same time. This system simply will not work, as all individual parties have interests which are irreconcilable with even a majority of the other parties involved. The only common interest that most parties share is that the idea of a nuclear weapon at Kim Jong-Il's disposal is a frightening prospect.
One of the only certainties surrounding this issue is that the test has already taken its toll on the Bush Administration's tough-guy posturing of American foreign policy towards "rogue" states such as North Korea and Iran. That is not to imply that the United States should do nothing about this situation. Some in the blogosphere have proposed that N. Korea has a "right" to produce and test these weapons, partly as an act of defiance toward the imperialistic policies of the US, thereby joining the club of nuclear states which unfortunately continues to grow. While I do not doubt for a moment that the Bush Administration will somehow only heighten the sense of distress and impending doom surrounding the North Korea test, I cannot see how anyone but Kim Jong-Il can see a nuclear-armed Kim Jong-Il as a good thing.
The fact that any country has the ability to instantaneously annihilate another's populace is terrifying, but in the hands of Kim Jong-Il, it becomes a much more feasible possibility. The reality of the situation is that Kim's government is acting on bravado with the knowledge, shared by Iran and other aspiring regional powers, that having nuclear weapons in one's arsenal gives them an enormous bargaining-chip. This is especially true for Kim; he knows that the rest of the world considers him crazy enough to potentially use these weapons. For the US, if there's anything we can learn from Iraq, it is not to conduct abrasive military operations in regions of the world or in tense situations we do not completely understand. The Bush Administration needs to acknowledge the situation; Kim has pulled a stick-up on the entire region, and we had better proceed cautiously in case he is planning to fire if provoked.
