The Observer, February 8, 2008
Volume XL, Issue 16
Unpopular Reason: Outcome of Serbian election will have international consequences
On Sunday, Serbians headed to the polls to cast their votes in an election that was, without question, the most politically significant event in the Balkans since Slobodan Miloševic was handed over to the ICTY (International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia) in 2001. In fact, the scope of the consequences associated with its outcome will impact the stability of the international community for years to come.
This being the second round, there were only two choices. One was Boris Tadic, the incumbent president, who enjoyed a degree of popular support among the masses and strongly advocated strengthening relations with the West. The other was the acting head of the Serbian Radical Party, Tomislav Nikolic. He was decidedly more interested in building better relations with an autocratic Russia, and had long exhibited Euro-skeptic tendencies. The primary issue around which this election centered, and the source of the greatest division between the two candidates, was the status of Kosovo.
Following unjustified NATO bombings and military assault on the Serbians, U.N. peacekeepers took control of Serbian Kosovo and have remained in charge since 1999. Their tenure is about to expire, and Russia's power of veto on the Security Council ensures that this time, Serbian sovereignty will be safeguarded. Consequently, the United States and many of the Western members of the European Union have said they plan to recognize the independence of Kosovo the moment they formally declare it. This is expected to happen in the coming weeks.
Both Nikolic and Tadic stated that they would not accept an independent Kosovo, as they believe it to be part of Serbia's heartland. Yet their approaches differ greatly. Nikolic, who was unfortunately defeated, vowed to retain control of the territory by any means necessary, including war. Further, he would cease efforts to obtain EU membership, and cut relations with nations that recognized Kosovo as a legitimate country. By contrast, Tadic had said that Kosovo would not be a roadblock to the Westernization of Serbia. Even if the EU acknowledged Kosovo's claim of independence, he would seek entry into the EU quasi-state.
In other words, one candidate would have prevented the creation of Kosovo, and he lost. With a win by Tadic, it is virtually certain that within one or two months, there will be an independent, internationally recognized Kosovo. This would be a devastating blow to Serbia in every sense, and will undoubtedly fuel rabid anti-Western sentiments among the masses. And it will do far more to retard relations with the West than Nikolic's victory ever would have.
And yet, horrible as the consequences are for Serbia and those nations wishing to deal with it, the consequences are even greater for the rest of the world. Eastern Europe is one of the most ethnically divided parts of the world. Tension and animosity based on familial geographic origin is par for the course in many regions, and can frequently manifest itself in violent conflict. War is the natural consequence of secession efforts. And Kosovo sets the sort of dangerous precedent that will lend automatic credibility to countless similar efforts in the region. Among the many places likely to play the Kosovo card and seek new nation status are Abkhazia, Kurdistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, North Cyprus, Transnistria, South Ossetia, Srpska, and Vojvodina. And that is just the East! Further west we've got Aland, Alsace, Basqueland, Flanders, and Scotland. This says nothing of the non-European world, where independent movements are exceptionally numerous.
Thus, the establishment of an independent Kosovo sets a dangerous example that will invariably be mimicked elsewhere, to the great detriment of the international community. It will catalyze large-scale Balkanization and separation along arbitrary ethnic lines. There is not one way in which the international community benefits from such numerous hostile splits. And all of this will have been caused by one small election.
Caleb Posner is a freshman political science major.
