The Observer, February 22, 2008
Volume XL, Issue 18
Late Ohio presidential primary to be crucial battle for candidates
Super Tuesday has come and gone, as have dozens of state primaries and caucuses. But we're less than two weeks away from the Ohio primaries and things are starting to heat up. Ohio is a unique state because of its political diversity. It is a state of "Bible Belt Republicans" and liberal stalwarts; a state where one of the nation's poorest cities is a day trip away from some of the nation's richest agriculture. It's also the site of one of the most important primaries of this election, and the candidates who do win will have done so with nearly every political and social group represented.
Senator Hillary Clinton has her work cut out for her in this campaign after a tepid performance on Feb. 5, as well as three crucial losses in Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland on Feb. 12. If she is to rebound and capture the Democratic nomination, Ohio will be the start. It is clear that she will capture the women's vote, as she has in the past. It is also clear that she will capture the Hispanic vote, according to SurveyUSA. But if Hillary is to win the Democratic nomination, then she will have to start cutting into Senator Obama's strengths. This includes younger voters, blacks, and men.
Senator Obama is running a very strong campaign, and it's only getting stronger after winning the Chesapeake trifecta on Feb. 12. However, it is crucial that he has a good showing on March 4. Rhode Island and Vermont are both nestled in Hillary country, so his best bets come in Texas and Ohio, both of which he can easily lose unless he captures the vast majorities of young voters and blacks and captures a good amount of support with women and senior voters.
Although his campaign will never admit it, Obama is in trouble on March 4. He'll be lucky to win just one of the four states up for grabs. The New England states will most likely fall in favor of Hillary and Texas will be a stretch. In Ohio, it seems as though Clinton has effectively tapped Obama's political strengths in the state. I'm predicting a Clinton win with no less than 47 percent of the vote. Obama will be lucky to crack 42 percent.
Mike Huckabee also needs some help in the states up for grabs on March 4. Actually, a lot of help. Huckabee's platform effectively turns away many independents, moderate conservatives, socially liberal conservatives, and others. That being said, his one true strength comes from social conservatives, which gives him a bit of a chance in Texas. But unless Huckabee can tap into urban conservatives, independents, and win over the votes of scores of would-be McCain supporters, his chances in Ohio are slim and getting slimmer.
Senator John McCain has the nomination all but wrapped up as we head into the March 4 primaries. But his weaknesses can be exposed in Ohio. His strengths lie with moderate conservatives and independents as well as fiscal conservatives. His pro-life stance also gains him some support from social conservatives. His worst fear is that hard-line social conservatives come out en masse, or that an enormous influx of anti-Iraq conservatives vote.
Like Clinton, McCain can sweep the four states on March 4. Independent-overrun Vermont and Rhode Island will fall for McCain without much contention by Huckabee, but the former Arkansas governor might put up a decent fight in Texas and Ohio, although it's becoming clear that he, like Obama, can be a four-time loser that night as well. It is doubtful that Huckabee's social conservative backers will come out in the droves that he would require to negate the double-digit deficits he's facing in Texas and Ohio. I'm predicting Ohio to swing to McCain without much of a fight from his competitor. McCain will get no less than 50 percent of the vote while Huckabee might get 40 percent, although I seriously doubt it.
This is where we stand as the candidates flock to Ohio and the race approaches March 4. Can Hillary re-ignite her floundering campaign? Obama has successfully caught up with Senator Clinton in his race for the nomination, but can he weather what looks to be a considerable roadblock? At the same time, can McCain put the final nail in Huckabee's coffin with wins in Texas and Ohio? Or will Huckabee, like the New York Giants, come out strong and upset the heavy favorite? We will be able to answer all of these questions in 11 days.
Josh Goldberg is a third-year political science major.
