The Observer, April 18, 2008
Volume XL, Issue 25
April is month of political monotony, gridlock
The good people of Pennsylvania had hoped to vote in a primary that mattered. Unfortunately, this is not the case for either party. In the Keystone State, the primary could easily be overshadowed by a more pressing issue: how will the Democratic gridlock be broken, who will break it, what does continued indecisiveness do to the Democratic Party, and finally, what have John McCain and the GOP been doing this whole time?
The latest polls for the Pennsylvania primary show Hillary Clinton holding a lead of anywhere from three to 20 points over Barack Obama. For Clinton, this is very good news. Finally, after weeks of campaign "stagnation," Obama's lead in the delegate count can be narrowed with a crucial win. For Obama, this news is not good, but it is not bad either. He is in no danger of losing his lead in the delegate count and was never favored to win the state. In fact, a good showing by the senator from Illinois could be spun as a victory for the campaign in light of the defeat at the polls.
For the Democratic Party, however, this situation is very bad news. Neither Obama nor Clinton can mathematically win the nomination at this point. The party has become, in many ways, polarized over the two candidates, and neither side is showing signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, to independent voters, it is starting to look like the Democrats can't make up their minds; the Republicans settled on a nomination very quickly.
Signs of independents' and undecided voters' discontent due to the Democrats' indecisiveness are already being seen. In March, nearly every poll showed that both Clinton and Obama would defeat John McCain in the general election by a few points. McCain has since made up that ground, and in the latest Rasmussen poll, a hypothetical election between McCain and Obama results in a seven-point GOP victory. The same poll between Clinton and McCain shows another GOP victory by a margin of four points. It can be predicted that these numbers might actually increase because as the Democratic contestants are bickering among themselves, John McCain is silently and effectively raising money, garnering GOP support, and wooing the independent vote.
Many Democrats are quick to point out that McCain is still not very popular among values voters and the Christian right. Although I don't think he's in any real danger of losing their votes, I do think he could lose quite a bit of their campaign donations. For this reason, there has been a lot of speculation over who his vice presidential nominee should be. Names such as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and former presidential hopefuls Rudy Guliani and Fred Thompson have been recurring for some time now. Two points must be made on this topic: First, it is still too early for McCain to shop for a vice president. He needs to concentrate on getting his message out to voters. Picking a vice president to appease the Christian right will most likely alienate the undecided and independent vote, which is crucial for a presidential victory. Any announcement of a vice presidential candidate must not come at the expense of this group of moderate swing voters.
Second, I'm throwing two names out that have not been mentioned as frequently. The first is McCain for President co-chair and current Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He's very conservative, both fiscally and socially, and is personable, energetic, and popular in a state that consistently votes Democrat in the general election. His support will likely reach into Minnesota universities and western Wisconsin, which would be a huge accomplishment for the GOP. The second name to watch is South Dakota Sen. John Thune. Thune is a poster child of the Christian right, and although his region of the country is in no danger of voting anything but red in November, he brings youth to the table. Because McCain is 72 years old, it is important that his running mate is quite a bit younger than him. Thune is 47, and grew to national acclaim by knocking off the most powerful Democrat in the country, Tom Daschle, in 2004.
So this is where we stand in April. The Democrats are still indecisive, the GOP is still silently prowling for support, and the Pennsylvania primary is still somewhat meaningless. The race will grow more intense as it continues into the summer months, but at this current juncture, the political atmosphere is one of stagnation.
Josh Goldberg is a third-year political science major.
