The Observer, April 25, 2008
Volume XL, Issue 26
Global Scorning: Joining Kyoto Protocol will not destroy U.S. economy
When it comes to global warming and climate change issues, society tends to either ignore the problem or fear it. Environmental groups and newspapers throw dates around when society will completely disintegrate and the world will appear to have never existed at all: 2050, 2075…And while these dates haunt our daily lives, our President consistently refuses to join the Kyoto Protocol out of his own fear of our "economy falling apart." Not to sound like a total defeatist or cynic, but now that our economy is officially falling apart, change is inevitable, and from the bottom there is only one way to go. Accordingly, in the past month, studies have been released that as it turns out, our economy is able to withstand sacrifices and change: the utilization of a cap-and-trade program.
President Bush has regularly opposed cap-and-trade programs that would limit harmful carbon dioxide emissions, claiming that this kind of program would cause permanent damage to the economy. Contrary to his belief, studies have been released reporting that capping carbon emissions would cost U.S. households less than one cent on the dollar over the next two decades. This minuscule payment is significantly less than the cost (both monetary and in terms of jobs and damage to the economy) that critics have predicted. The study proves that economic growth can still exist while consciously cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions.
The study looked at five different models of forecasting the economic impact of cap-and-trade programs. Looking at all five models, the conclusion was made that the projected median impact on annual growth over the next two decades would be .03 percent. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to grow at nearly three percent per year, the same rate of growth since World War II. According to the report's author, Nathaniel Keohane, the downward impact of the cap-and-trade program would be slight and barely distinguishable.
To put this cost into perspective, Americans now spend more than three cents on the dollar on insurance, about four cents on national defense, and 10 cents on Social Security. And just to throw another number out there, according to Keohane, total U.S. output is supposed to reach $26 trillion by January 2030. With the cap on greenhouse gas emissions, the economy will reach that level by April of the same year. As for the number of jobs destroyed due to the climate policy, Keohane believes that there should be no real difference compared to the number of jobs created and destroyed every three months in the U.S.
Now that our economy is a bust and our fears of the world's fate are settled, the U.S. is ready to open its arms up to climate policies. Last week, Bush made a vague, yet refreshing announcement about reaching a greenhouse gas emissions goal by 2025 – with no specifics offered. We have been the black sheep of climate change for a long time, claiming the title of the only major industrialized nation to reject the Kyoto Protocol. I think we're ready to join the rest of the sheep and submit to our herder known as the Kyoto Protocol and rationalism.
