The Observer, September 26, 2008
Volume XLI, Issue 5
A vice-presidential profile: the other half of the ticket
September has been a month of political analysis on both sides of the continuum. Both Democrats and Republicans have their nominations as well as the candidates' picks for vice president, and this has not processed without some turbulence.
For the Democrats, Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden was safe but unwise. Biden is a very experienced politician in matters of foreign policy, Obama's Achilles heel. However, he was terribly unpopular in the presidential primaries, picking up just 0.22 percent of the entire vote and beating only Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel. Don't expect Biden to contribute any discernable electoral impact come Election Day. Had the senator hailed from a state such as Ohio or Florida, the pick would have been exponentially better.
The state of Delaware was penciled in for Obama even before the conventions, having voted Democrat in four straight presidential elections. All the major polls currently show Obama leading McCain by five or more points, and with their Golden Boy as his vice presidential pick, it is sure to be penciled in blue for a fifth time come November.
For the Republicans, Sarah Palin is a curious yet good choice. Palin is only the second woman to run on a presidential ticket and arguably the first woman to run on a ticket that might have a chance of winning come November (the first was Geraldine Ferraro, who ran with Walter Mondale in 1988 in a disastrous election in which the Democrats won only the state of Minnesota). She fills in the gaps left by John McCain, particularly in the areas of values conservatives and women.
Many were shocked when candidates such as Tim Pawlenty and Joe Lieberman were overlooked for an Alaskan dark horse. But McCain holds his own among independents, which absolves Lieberman from any electoral contribution. In fact, many neoconservatives would frown upon a former Democrat carrying the GOP colors into Election Day. Tim Pawlenty would have been an excellent choice, giving McCain a prayer in Minnesota as well as a solid south. However, Pawlenty would not have resonated as well with women, a group that will overall procure more electoral votes than Minnesota's 10.
Palin allows the McCain camp to feed off the bad vibrations left over from Hillary Clinton's tussle with Obama. Many independent feminist Hilary supporters, now doubly snubbed after her political benching both at the top and bottom of the ticket, have the potential to be recruited to the GOP.
Palin is also a perfect standard bearer for values conservatism. She is a card-carrying member of the National Rifle Association, against gay marriage, and fiercely pro-life, going so far as to call for an amendment banning it unless the woman's life is at stake. With a platform like hers, McCain is almost guaranteed to win over the votes of much of the Bible belt and surrounding area, which will become very apparent once election returns start flowing in.
Palin only has one blemish. She is from Alaska, a state fortified with scores of GOP officials that, like Delaware, has a very minimal electoral contribution. The state was never in danger of being conquered by the Democrats.
Biden and Palin will have the opportunity to square off and discuss the issues on Thursday, Oct. 2 in St. Louis.
