Skip to Content

What would actually happen if Trump wins?

Whenever presidential elections happen, people tend to misunderstand the powers available to the president of the United States. They view the president as the main contributor to everything that is currently happening in America. Obviously, it’s a major stretch to blame the current president for gas prices, but even beyond that, the president doesn’t make the laws. While the president has influence over people in Congress, they are ultimately unable to pass any laws if Congress is against them. But that’s exactly what Republicans are trying to change this November.

So with November’s election rapidly approaching, it’s a good time to take stock of what exactly former president Donald Trump will do if he is elected as opposed to the vague warnings that you may be tired of hearing. You’ve probably heard of Project 2025, a set of plans outlined by the Heritage Foundation to make a potential second Trump presidency more organized and effective than his famously disorganized first term. While many parts of Project 2025 are unrealistic or unlikely to happen, I’d like to focus on two of the most realistic effects that it might have: the appointment of federal judges and a transformation of the executive branch of the federal government.

First, Trump has already actively appointed judges. This presidential role has been historically nonpartisan and ceremonial, but Republicans—Trump especially—have begun to view the appointment of judges as another avenue by which they can impose their political will on the country. The effects of Trump’s appointments have been subtle because most court cases presided over by federal judges are fairly low-profile. An obvious example is the U.S. Supreme Court, which has been famously partisan in the past few years because of Trump’s appointments. Another example is found in the famous criminal case against Trump, which was dismissed by Aileen Cannon, a federal judge whom he appointed. Currently, the forces backing Trump are preparing for a second term by creating a list of candidates for judicial positions specifically tailored for political outcomes. This differs from his first term when selections were made at his whims.

The more obvious consequences of a second Trump presidential term are the changes to the executive branch that Project 2025 is advocating for. The executive branch consists of departments and agencies with two types of employees: “political” and “career” workers. Political positions include department secretaries and other high-level officials tasked with setting the general direction of their department, while career positions are skilled bureaucrats who handle the day-to-day responsibilities to make sure the administration can do its job. But here’s Trump’s problem: While political employees answer directly to the president, career employees serve the Constitution, which means they’re fairly independent from the president’s whims. This means that government functions that should remain apolitical can become politicized under Trump. The most famous example of this tension was during Hurricane Dorian in 2019, when Trump claimed the hurricane would hit Alabama. When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pointed out that his prediction had no factual basis, he held a press conference with an NOAA map showing the hurricane’s trajectory that he had modified with a black sharpie to include Alabama.

To return to Project 2025, one of the prescriptions within it is to fire thousands of career employees and replace them with political appointees. There’s disagreement over whether Trump would have the stamina to hire so many people or if he would actually have the legal authority to do so, but it speaks to a belief that federal agencies shouldn’t serve the people, they should serve the president. Can you imagine the precedent it would set if the NOAA had agreed with Trump’s obviously false claims about the hurricane? Federal agencies don’t just push paper around: They facilitate the basic organization of the entire country, from economics to law enforcement to disaster relief. If you know anyone who works for the federal government in any capacity, a Trump presidency could seriously downsize their role or force them to compromise on the values and standards of their job in order to be more loyal to the president.

The likelihood of all this happening also depends on whether or not this election gives Republicans a majority in Congress. While Trump’s advisers intend to make these changes with or without the consent of Congress, having that consent would make the process much smoother. This is part of why it’s so hard to convince people to vote against Trump. If anyone other than Trump wins, we will hopefully see a return to a president who takes bipartisanship and ceremonial duties seriously and doesn’t twist them cynically for maximum political gain. That also inherently makes the opposition less exciting. Trump’s pitch on immigration is that he’ll deport millions of “illegals” and build a wall along the border of the U.S. and Mexico. Meanwhile, Harris’s pitch is that she’ll sign a border reform bill into law … if Congress passes it, which is definitely not a sure thing.

Democracy is boring and frustrating. If you initially got into politics at some point after 2016, you may not remember a time when the president was a representative first and a lawmaker second. It’s a hard sell to return to that time, especially when America’s biggest issues have only gotten more pressing with years of deadlock in Congress. But America’s government won’t survive for much longer if we allow the executive branch to be filled from top to bottom with moronic cultists.