On Oct. 31, the Ohio Redistricting Commission (ORC) drew a new congressional map. The drawing gives the Republican party a boost in gaining two more seats in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. 

The census calls states to redraw their maps every ten years due to population changes. In Ohio, the previous map did not receive bipartisan support from the state legislature in 2022; it was approved with only a simple majority. Under Ohio law, maps that lack bipartisan support are only valid for two general elections rather than ten years, so congressional district maps needed to be redrawn in four years instead.

By Oct. 31, the ORC had to decide on a map with bipartisan approval to prevent it from returning to the legislature for another vote. The fact that the ORC was able to secure the decision before the redrawing was passed to the Republican-dominated legislature provided more fairness to Democrats. The redistricting commission’s decision was unanimous, leaving the Republican Party with two more red-leaning districts than their previous 10 out of 15, giving them a 12-3 advantage over Democrats.

Brian Pearson is the executive secretary of the North Shore American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO), Ohio’s most active and largest labor council. While referring to the Democrat’s current minority standing, he said, “I think the Democrats had to take the deal on the table or the Republicans could have made it much worse.” 

Despite the Republican majority, many believe that Democrats were given the most favorable outcome, given their minority status in the Trump administration. Republicans dominate both the State Senate and the House, comprising a majority of the redistricting commission. Nevertheless, the redistricting decision comes with the cost of partisan bias, leaving the Republicans with a “seat-vote gap,”—a larger portion of seats than representative of those who affiliate with their party in the state.

Justin Buchler, an associate professor in the Case Western Reserve University department of political science, described the partisan bias at play.

“The Republicans have an advantage at the level of state government at the moment, which means they have an advantage redrawing lines,” Buchler said. He emphasized that “nothing is permanent” in these kinds of politics, however. 

“This is a stupid game, but electoral politics are self-correcting,” Buchler said. “The punishment for stupidity is that eventually you lose, which is why no one holds a long-term majority.”

Recently, President Donald Trump has been pushing states to gerrymander to become more Republican-leaning. In gerrymandering, states intentionally redraw their maps before the ten-year census in the hopes of gaining an advantage in upcoming elections for a certain political party. Even though Ohio redrew lines under a specific plan to gain full bipartisan support, the drawing shows bias. Buchler described how the “game” started in Texas.

“This [gerrymandering] process began with Texas, with an attempt by the Texas GOP to pick up a few more Republican seats through mid-decade redistricting,” Buchler said. He discussed how the Democratic party attempted to cancel out the gains in Texas in response to the pre-census redistricting. “Everyone else is trying to cancel out the other party’s response, and the effects cannot be assessed in isolation.” 

The Democratic incumbents who plan to run for re-election face different changes in pressures now. 

The incumbents include Greg Landsman who is running for the 1st congressional district, Marcy Kaptur for the 9th and Emilia Sykes for the 13th. Landsman faces a more Republican-dominated district, but his odds are uncertain given its less red-leaning outcomes in recent years. Kaptur faces her district’s expansion to a red-leaning northwest Ohio, leaving her at a potentially greater disadvantage. In a surprising win for Democrats, Sykes deals with a more blue-leaning district. 

“I am confident we will be at 11-4 at a minimum which is better math than 13-2 or 12-3,” Pearson said regarding the Democrat’s chances in the upcoming midterm election.

Given the changes, Kaptur faces what Pearson has called a “tougher race.” However, Kaptur, who is the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress, shows no signs of being ruffled by redistricting tactics. She responded to the changes in a statement.

“I remain committed to serving Northwest Ohio and will seek re-election with a renewed focus on accountability and protecting the voice of the people,” she said. “Our democracy works best when voters choose their leaders, not when politicians choose their voters.”